At an average growth rate of two per cent, Europe's demand for electricity will double by 2050. At a three per cent growth rate, it will more than treble.
Europe is building an “electric economy”. Electricity is set to become the dominant source of energy. It will drive the transition to a low carbon, high growth future. By 2050 most of our transport could be powered by electricity, with the possible exception of some heavy commercial vehicles.
As part of this transition, electricity grids will no longer be seen as a national resource. They will become international corridors of trade bringing renewable energy generation from northern marine and southern solar generation to European centres of population.
If we are to reduce carbon emissions by 80% then all of this increased demand will have to be met by renewable energy. Existing coal, oil and gas generation will have to be phased out – completely. By 2030 there will be no more fossil fuel plant built in Europe. New build will consist only of renewables and nuclear. Already we can see that trend develop, with more wind energy installed in Europe in 2008 and 2009 than any other form of electricity generation.
If we are to fully exploit these renewable resources, and deliver power on a continental scale, then the energy sector has to significantly reduce investment costs through a whole series of innovations, from plant design to voltage source technology. In offshore wind, scale will come from combining large clusters of simplified turbines into wind-fired power stations. These stations are the modules on which the Supergrid will be built.
The efficiencies of scale resulting from larger turbines configured in 500MW modules will reduce unit production costs over time in accordance with the cost curve common to all industries growing to maturity. The supply chain for Round 3 in the UK is already expanding to meet anticipated demand, and ports and harbours across Northern Europe are competing to bring these new North Sea industries to their regions.